Followers ≠ Volume

We work with a $50B FDV portfolio, and the reason they all succeeded was because of 1 main thing.

We handle marketing and growth for projects with a combined market cap of $50B+. These include the top 10 L1s, L2s, and memes (lol). This is their biggest commonality.

The Problem: Vanity Metrics Don't Equal Volume

Projects often prioritize metrics like:

  • Social following (e.g., Twitter followers, Discord members)

  • Total Value Locked (TVL) (often inflated by incentivized deposits)

  • User numbers (including incentivized testnet users or bot accounts)

  • Test transactions (which don't reflect real-world usage)

Or they prioritize influencers they think have influence because of their social following.

These metrics look impressive on paper, but they don't correlate with actual volume or success. Why? Because:

  1. Retail investors get tricked: They see big numbers and assume the project has traction, but those numbers don't reflect genuine demand.

  2. Exchanges get misled: Listings are often based on perceived user bases or volume potential, not actual utility.

But here's the harsh reality: if your user base is mostly:

  • From regions with limited capital (e.g., low GDP per capita), they won't drive meaningful volume.

  • Using your product only for incentives (e.g., airdrops, testnet rewards), they'll disappear once the rewards dry up.

Example: SafeMoon had millions of social followers and massive hype, but its volume cratered shortly after launch because there was no real utility or sustainable demand. The project's value plummeted, exposing the disconnect between vanity metrics and actual success.

Why This Happens: The Game, Not the Player

You're right to say "hate the game, not the player." In crypto, the end goal for many projects is getting listed on a major exchange. Exchanges care about:

  • New users the project can bring.

  • Volume the project can generate.

Vanity metrics are the easiest way to quantify this potential, but they often mask underlying weaknesses. For instance:

  • Incentivized users might inflate testnet numbers, but they won't stick around post-TGE.

  • Low-liquidity communities can't sustain trading volume, no matter how many followers they have.

Example: Bitconnect promised high returns and had a massive social following, but it turned out to be a Ponzi scheme. Its metrics were impressive, but the volume was unsustainable because it lacked legitimacy and utility.

The Solution: A Multi-Pronged Approach

To solve this, projects need to shift their focus from vanity metrics to sustainable growth. Here's how, with examples for each step:

1. Start with Incentivized Usage (But Don't Stop There)

  • Incentivized usage (e.g., testnets, airdrops, liquidity mining) is fine as a starting point. It gets the ball rolling and attracts initial users.

  • The problem arises when incentives are the only reason people use your product.

Example: Axie Infinity's play-to-earn model attracted users during its peak, but many left once rewards dried up. Why? The gameplay wasn't compelling enough on its own, and the user base was largely incentivized, not organic.

Key takeaway: Incentives are a tool, not a strategy. Use them to onboard users, but ensure you transition to real utility.

2. Build Tangible Utility for Liquid Communities

  • The days of creating a problem and solving it are over. Projects need to solve real problems for communities with liquidity (e.g., DeFi users, NFT traders, or institutional investors).

  • Focus on utility that drives organic demand, not just hype.

Example: Uniswap started with liquidity mining incentives but transitioned into a DeFi cornerstone because it solved a real problem: decentralized trading. Today, its volume is driven by actual usage, not just rewards.

  • Contrast this with SafeMoon, which relied on memes and hype but lacked utility, leading to a post-launch crash.

Example: Aave innovated with flash loans, tapping into a high-liquidity DeFi market. Its tangible utility (lending and borrowing) sustains volume, not just its social metrics.

Key takeaway: Utility beats hype. Solve problems for communities that can actually move the needle.

3. Partner with Influencers Who Drive Volume, Not Just Clout

  • Social influencers with large followings are great for visibility, but visibility alone doesn't drive volume.

  • You need influencers who move markets—those low-key traders with 1,000-2,000 followers but private communities full of whales. These are the people who trade, not just tweet.

Key takeaway: Focus on influencers who can deliver trust and liquidity, not just social metrics. Intimately converting these key figures is a slow but critical process.

The Bottom Line: Followers ≠ Volume

At the end of the day, vanity metrics like followers, TVL, or testnet transactions don't guarantee success. Projects need to:

  • Use incentives strategically, but prioritize utility.

  • Solve real problems for liquid communities.

  • Partner with influencers who drive volume, not just hype.

If your TGE happens and there's no volume, all the marketing and tech in the world won't save you. Focus on building trust with the right people—the whales, the traders, the DeFi OGs—and deliver real value. That's how you turn metrics into actual volume.